Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

So just how important is the voter intensity edge Trump enjoys?
vanity | Oct. 17, 2016 | Kevin "Coach" Collis

Posted on 10/17/2016 6:03:08 AM PDT by jmaroneps37

There can be no honest dispute about the amount of ENTHUSIASM among Donald Trump’s supporters. It is a steady 11 points more than can be found among Hillary Clinton supporters.Now newly discovered research reveals that this very high level of enthusiasm, also called “voter intensity,” has been in place even for a generic Republican presidential candidate since last January.

In late January, the Tarrance Group conducted a survey and its head, Ed Goeas was startled by the level of voter intensity among Republicans. They discovered that there was an 11 point “intensity” gap among White Republicans as compared to that held by White Democrats.

Goeas, a Republican pollster, put the numbers in perspective saying, "We had in 2010 a nine-point advantage on intensity. Going into 2014 we had a seven-point advantage on intensity, meaning our voters are more intense about voting. Right now we have an 11-point advantage," he said. "I've never seen a double-digit advantage in terms of intensity to vote."

Goeas pointed to the intense dislike of President Barack Obama as the reason for the high intensity among Republican voters. This suggests that not only are we getting fixed “Who will you vote for?” polls but it is likely that we are getting fixed survey results to give Obama inflated approval numbers as well.

Goeas continued by pointing out that although Republican women don’t usually express an eagerness for voting as high as the intensity for voting among Republican men, in this cycle both are almost equal with man at 89% and women just behind them at 86%.

Goes said, "Not only is there no gender gap, there's no intensity gap with Republicans wanting to vote Republican this year, all driven by the president." This suggests the strength of the NeverTrump movement has been over stated as a way to sow division into the Republican efforts to win the presidency.

The Tarrance Group found that 53% of those surveyed believe “time is running out” to get the country back to where it should be.

These next items are especially important in interpretation of this polling data. Keep in mind that this information was carefully ignored by the Democrat Operatives in the media because they certainly could not assail the credentials of Ed Goeas who is the very well respected Republican half of the Battleground Polls with Celinda Lake, the Democrat side.

Even last January Republican messages about real change had already begun to reach African-Americans and Hispanics as Black and Latino "middle-class voters", Goeas’ poll revealed. Among African-Americans, for example, he found that 22 percent were voting Republican or undecided. Among Hispanics, 45 percent are already backing the GOP or are undecided.

You can choose to believe that Hispanics, who had already made the emotional leap of faith to back a Republican, would have done so with the intention of turning back to support a continuation of Democrat Open Borders policies if you prefer. Nevertheless, taking that position, requires a belief that fully one third of Hispanic Republican backers have since abandoned the idea of voting Republican.

As to the 22% Black support, an unusually high level of support for a generic Republican among African Americans, to dispute this and challenge the Tarrance Group’s findings requires pointing to anything Donald Trump has done to offend Black voters.To the contrary,Trump has done more outreach to African Americans than any modern Republican has done.

Again, as we continue to analyze the data compiled by Tarrance we must keep in mind that the following formula for a successful Republican campaign was announced BEFORE the first Iowa caucus and was released at a time when very few people believed that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee.

The same Tarrance Group survey found that fully 70% of Middle Class voters despaired that the “American Dream” was now out of reach for their children.

Goeas’ survey message stated, "Clearly, simple sloganeering like 'Hope and Change' is not going to meet the smell test with voters this political season. The current political environment has voters thinking the federal government is an ineffective mess that is causing more harm than good. However, they still want this government to be doing more, more that works, and works for them."

Continuing, Goeas said, “Middle class voters are key to the election because most Americans either are, or think they are, members of the group. The American Dream is getting further, further, further from our reach," he reported.

He strengthened his message by mentioning the fading American Dream five times and continued saying those whom he had surveyed were wary of inefficient government. Goeas said, “Seventy-five percent believe that with the current federal government solutions, the rich get the benefits, the poor get the programs, and the middle class get the bill."

Goeas mentioned the fading American Dream five times, but the conclusion was that middle class voters are worried that the economy has put it out of reach for their kids who will be stuck with the bill of inefficient government and social welfare.

"The middle class also has deeply held feelings that the next generation will not do as well as their generation (70 percent), moving the American Dream further from their reach, "In other words, the American electorate truly questions whether the American Dream, a better life for our children and grandchildren, is still within reach," he added.

To bolster the validity of this 11 point enthusiasm advantage Trump holds as the Republican nominee, we can go backward to December, 2014 for a review of what immediate post-election surveys of voter sentiments.

In cautioning Democrats that they were in more trouble than the recently held November elections proved, in December 2014 CNN reported that they found that looking forward to 2016 Republicans were more enthusiastic to vote by a stunning 36/19!


Further, Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps found, "Republicans, especially older white conservatives, were significantly more interested in the 2016 elections than Democrats and their key demographic groups. Seventy-one percent of likely GOP voters rated their interest in the elections as a “10” on a 1-to-10 scale, compared with 58 percent of Democratic voters who said the same.”


More recently:

On October 7, 2016 Vice President Joe Biden “I know some of you, and some of the people you are trying to convince are not crazy about Hillary”

A recent CBS News survey showed a spread of 11 points favoring those supporting Trump. We more ENTHUSIASTIC than those supporting Clinton.

A mid-September “The Hill online” article said, “Most strikingly, a CNN/ORC poll indicated that more than 1 in 5 five would-be Clinton voters were “not at all enthusiastic” about backing her (more than 20%) almost twice as many as said the same about Trump. (Likely 11%). The poll found 58 percent of Trump supporters saying they felt either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about their choice, and only 46 percent in the Clinton camp feeling the same.”

It continued with, “A Washington Post/ABC News poll found that 46 percent of Trump backers were “very enthusiastic,” compared with only 33 percent of Clinton supporters. And a New York Times/CBS News poll saw Trump outperforming Clinton in the same metric, 45 percent to 36 percent.”

All three linked at:

The Washington Examiner said, “Just 65 % of Dems plan to vote in the election, and just 47% among all voters aged 18-34, a trend that has the party worried about the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Republicans hold an 11-point 76/65 advantage. This is worst for Democrats in 16 years.”

A July Pew survey found the same 11 point enthusiasm gap even among those who have no religion. “Religious “nones” are, 11 points less Enthused about Clinton 26/37 than Obama.”

Gallup said, “Just 47% voters 18 to 34 planned to vote. In the weeks before the 2012 election, 75% said they would vote. On Election Day they made up 19% of all voters and provided Barack Obama with his winning margin.

A Dec 2014 survey by CNN found Republicans looking forward to voting in 2016 by a stunning 36/19!

A Washington Post ABC News Langer Research report said, Trump is winning White men by 65/25 and losing White women within the margin of error at 44/46. Trump leads Evangelicals 71/22 & Catholics 57/33 a 26 point turnaround from Mitt Romney in 2012 & previous elections. Note: Given the now exposed Democrat plans to overthrow the authority of the Catholic Church, it is likely that this spread will grow to perhaps as high as 60/30 or more.

Regardless of other factors, enthusiasm among Catholic voters for Hillary Clinton is at an all- time low. Her 33% is even lower than Mondale’s in 1984. This is evidence of high enthusiasm for Trump. Given the wiki leaked emails showing Clinton planning an attack on the authority of the Papacy this number should move up to 60/30 or more.

A recent CBS News poll has Clinton far off the amount of Black votes she needs. Some polls show Clinton at 80% Black support, others show her at 70%; either way she is far below the 95 percent Obama got twice with what looks to be from a larger turnout.

That Trump will get at least 20% of the Black vote can be construed from the results of polling in the District of Columbia. In ten available surveys, Clinton leads in the District by an average of 52.5/23- a very impressive sounding number until it is compared to what Obama did in the District in 2012. He won 91/9.

This means in a Democrat village like the District of Columbia, Hillary Clinton is running nearly 40 points behind what she should be getting just for having her name on the ballot. Nevertheless, considering the town is 48.5% African American, this provides strong evidence that, while the “wing tips” who work for the federal government are not enthusiastic to vote for Clinton, Washington's Blacks are actually ditching her and supporting Trump at around a 20% rate. can they be so different from African Americans elsewhere?

TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: taarrancesurvey
It's easy to see why only deep digging uncovered the data Goeas reported last January. It doesn't fit the media narrative about this election.
1 posted on 10/17/2016 6:03:08 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

2 posted on 10/17/2016 6:05:01 AM PDT by Byron_the_Aussie (choo choo)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

The findings are reinforced by the massive turn out for Trump’s rallies while Clinton can’t come anywhere close to filling a high school gym.

My guess is that if she walked into a diner unannounced to campaign people would run outside and barf.

3 posted on 10/17/2016 6:12:40 AM PDT by meatloaf (I am one irritated Vet.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37
OMG!! Have you all seen the sheriff Clarke picture on gateway pundit?? It's fab!!!!!!! I'm going to gather some friends and take a pitchforks and fire picture ...everyone should take pictures and post them on FB, TWITTER EVERYWHERE..VIRAL BABY VIRAL!!!!

....SHERIFF CLARKE: Time for Pitchforks and Fire – American Law Is Being Decimated, People Have Had

4 posted on 10/17/2016 6:12:43 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

Bill Oreilly had a poll
86% Trump
16% HilLIARy

That about matches what I am seeing in signs on lawns

It matches what we all see at rallies- 20,000 for Trum, 300 for hilLIARy

There is NO enthusiasm for her, except in the media

5 posted on 10/17/2016 6:17:05 AM PDT by Mr. K (Trump is running against EVERYONE. The Democrats, The Media, and the establishment GOP)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

Glad to see this info is getting out.

6 posted on 10/17/2016 6:19:21 AM PDT by philman_36 (Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty and supped with infamy. Benjamiin Franklin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

No body really knows. All we can do here is HOPE. But there are no guarantees. Anyone who thinks they KNOW what is going to happen Nov 8 is simply blustering. One thing for sure, this election is either going to turn modern polling on its head, or its going to crush us, and put to lie the idea that massive and enthusiastic rallies mean anything in Presidential elections.

7 posted on 10/17/2016 6:21:32 AM PDT by Paradox ("Wishing for a tautology to enact itself is not a strategy.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

It will make an enormous difference when Crooked Hillary and the Clinton Crime Syndicate cheat their way to victory, and she will be faced with half the country that considers her an illegitimate criminal. The first Black president was a flop because he was considered illegitimate. The first woman president, given ample proof of her perfidious actions, will be an even more disasterous failure. She may destroy the country in the process.

8 posted on 10/17/2016 6:26:31 AM PDT by txrefugee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

I don’t know if he really has the edge in intensity. The leftists are pretty motivated as well. Particularly liberal women.

9 posted on 10/17/2016 6:28:59 AM PDT by Brilliant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paradox

Whether either of those might be valid observations depends on the effectiveness of vote manipulation which is easier this time around and much more centralized than ever before.

10 posted on 10/17/2016 6:30:49 AM PDT by arthurus (Hillary's camIn the picture paign is getting shaky)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Brilliant

Please help us out here If you know something we don’t know please let us know. Where can we find surveys that show that enthusiasm is about equal because liberal women support Trump? Don’t hold back, we’re all friends here.

11 posted on 10/17/2016 6:33:12 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37

MSM is dead to me for a long time. Twinkie will walk
barefoot over rough gravel to the polls on Election Day
to vote for:


*Down the drain with both Hill & Kaine!!

12 posted on 10/17/2016 6:57:26 AM PDT by Twinkie (John 3:16)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Brilliant

Yeah, all twelve of them!

13 posted on 10/17/2016 7:06:33 AM PDT by Billyv (Freedom isn't Free! Get off the sidelines!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37
Yep - they omit that a lot of the enthusiasm is that so many actually like what they see and hear with Trump. Dislike of Obama and Hillary are only part of the equation.

Nothing likable about Hillary to engender enthusiasm among her base.

14 posted on 10/17/2016 7:13:49 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trebb

Voter turnout is what will make the difference

Can the media depress the Trump vote???

Time will tell

I do not think so

Trump may have a hidden Bradely effect

15 posted on 10/17/2016 7:30:23 AM PDT by Hojczyk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

Agreed. Trump has unheard of enthusiasm despite all the propaganda machines trying to demoralize his folks.

16 posted on 10/17/2016 7:36:57 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson