Skip to comments.Russia: The prospect of regime change in North Korea is a serious concern
Posted on 01/22/2018 10:41:37 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
The prospect of regime change is a serious concern. The Kremlin understands that (U.S. President Donald) Trump is unpredictable. They felt more secure with Barack Obama that he would not take any action that would explode the situation, but with Trump they dont know.
Kortunov, the think-tank chief close to the Russian Foreign Ministry, said he did not think the Kremlins defense of Kim Jong Un was based on any personal affection or support for North Koreas leadership, likening Moscows pragmatic backing to that it has given Syrias President Bashar al-Assad.
Moscows position was motivated by a belief the status quo made Russia a powerful geopolitical player in the crisis because of its close ties to Pyongyang, Kortunov said, just as Russias support for Assad has gifted it greater Middle East clout.
He said Moscow knew it would lose regional leverage if Kim Jong Un fell, much as its Middle East influence was threatened when Islamist militants looked like they might overthrow Assad in 2015.
Its a very delicate balancing act, said Kortunov.
On the one hand, Russia doesnt want to deviate from the line of its partners and mostly from Chinas position on North Korea which is getting tougher. But on the other hand, politicians in Moscow understand that the current situation and level of interaction between Moscow and Pyongyang puts Russia in a league of its own compared to China.
(Excerpt) Read more at russiancouncil.ru ...
Russia is not helping us at all with North Korea, What China is helping us with, Russia is denting. In other words, Russia is making up for some of what China is doing.
“Trump is unpredictable.”
I think this is a good thing.
Bullies act on predictability.
I dont think Russia likes NK anymore than we do, and Id suspect the feeling is mutual. But they feel they have the rattlesnake by the neck and theyre afraid to let go and not sure how to kill it.
What China and Russia are both afraid of is chaos resulting in millions of refugees streaming over their borders. Ditto for South Korea, that’s why you have to be careful in how you take out the regime.
It’s simple: Moscow doesn’t want a united Korea that gives the U.S. a geopolitical advantage in Asia. They share a border with North Korea, of course they don’t want American troops on the other side of it.
As I’ve said elsewhere on FR: What I am bothered by is modern Russia’s refusal to take historical responsibility for North Korea in the first place, even while resuscitating Soviet modes of geo-politicking.
North Korea was called by the “Jerusalem of the East” by the American missionaries who populated it prior to the Soviets turning it into an atheist Gulag helll-hole.
Yet look at SOUTH Korea, where Americans stay to this day: tiny, half of a nation yet with an economy more alive and active than even Russia’s.
The disparity between the two Koreas is very telling.
What China and Russia want is a guarantee that the US would withdraw from the Peninsula in exchange for giving up North Korea, and Reuniting under South Leadership.
ugh. I know. and so long as Putin and his ilk are in power, I would hope the U.S. does not want to give into ANY of their demands.
and yet I know it’s not exactly in the U.S. interests to “take on” North Korea. So.
What do you think of that prospect?
A neutral united Korea is something I could live with. We spend a lot of money to be there, and we’ll always have Japan.
Wonder how that would shape China’s role in the region.
China would probably try to pull a united Korea into their sphere of influence economically. Remember, there’s no love lost between Korea and Japan.
Yup. soetoro was there man.
Which is exactly what I've been saying: that the notion that the Russians would rather have Trump than Mrs. Bill Clinton is absurd.
They did it in East Germany.
Yes, I agree. I think Russia got involved with NK at a very different period in Russian history, and I honestly dont think they know what to do with it now. Theyve armed it or at any rate not stopped it from getting armed (probably the Iranians actually armed it) but now its as much of a threat to them as to everybody else.
True. The relationship between these countries is extremely complicated.
And I do think Russia has a tiger by the tail and is afraid to let it go but doesnt know how to kill it without unleashing chaos, as you say.
That’s basically the deal we made with Austria after WWII. Austria was divided, like Germany, Austria was allowed to reunite in 1955, with the agreement that they would not join NATO.
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