Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The GOPís Misguided Midterm Optimism
Cook Political ^ | February 9, 2018

Posted on 02/09/2018 3:33:55 PM PST by SMGFan

All of our national elections are important, but there is always a special significance to the last midterm elections before the congressional and state-legislative redistricting processes take place. Democrats had a very unpleasant experience for much of the past decade after their thumping in 2010, the last midterm election before the current lines were drawn. For Democrats, it was the defeat that kept on defeating.

For the uninitiated, the decennial national Census is conducted in years ending with a zero, with states redrawing the congressional and state-legislative lines the following year. In all but a few states, it is a process conducted by the state legislatures themselves, with governors usually playing a direct or indirect role. So party control of state government is crucial everywhere save Arizona, California, and Iowa, the states with nonpartisan redistricting processes. Thirty-four states hold their governor races only in the midterm election cycle, and state legislative races are similarly loaded up in midterm years—this year, 82 percent of all state legislative seats will be on the ballot.

(Excerpt) Read more at cookpolitical.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms
Trump needs to get the GOP voters out this November or redistricting following 2020 reapportionment will cut their lead(?) in 2023 in the House
1 posted on 02/09/2018 3:33:55 PM PST by SMGFan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

2 posted on 02/09/2018 3:34:57 PM PST by 11th_VA (People who deny reality often do not live to regret it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

The RNC should be the entity getting the vote out.

While Trump can and should make appearances, he has a full plate.


3 posted on 02/09/2018 3:36:54 PM PST by DoughtyOne (01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Same Cook Report predicted a Hillary landslide in 2016. Look how that worked out...


4 posted on 02/09/2018 3:37:53 PM PST by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Forever))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

agree it all comes down to GOTV but this is rather funny...

11/7/2016 according to Cook:

clinton- 278 EC, Trump- 214 EC, toss up- 46

https://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard


5 posted on 02/09/2018 3:40:50 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

The Democrats will be pushing for more seats as though their lives depend on it. They want an impeachment.


6 posted on 02/09/2018 3:42:39 PM PST by familyop (President Trump said that we're all important, so let's do something!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

“The RNC should be the entity getting the vote out.”

Technically you’re right - but the RNC, forget it.

Trump needs to get out and get around...otherwise half of the Republican electorate won’t even know there’s an election in November (which is why we have this losing streak).


7 posted on 02/09/2018 3:43:44 PM PST by BobL (I shop at Walmart...I just don't tell anyone)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Thanks. I wasn’t aware of that, and the title of this article alone reveals the entity to be a low value one.

With what Trump has already accomplished, there’s no misguided optimism. It’s well deserved optimism.

Does that mean we should relax and phone it in? Of course not, but then we should never do that.

The Judge Moore loss proves that.

Maybe the RNC can refrain from sending out top Republican names to trash our candidates in the press this November, or doing robo-calls the day before the election telling Republicans to stay home, vote for the Democrat, or some idiot on a write-in.

I know it will be hard for them not to do these things, especially if the guy/gal is a sure fire Conservative vote 95% plus of the time.


8 posted on 02/09/2018 3:45:05 PM PST by DoughtyOne (01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: BobL

The...

R eally
N ot
C oncerned

...with advancing Conservatism group, is sadly lacking as you state.


9 posted on 02/09/2018 3:46:55 PM PST by DoughtyOne (01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: BobL

I’m getting two or three appeals per day from the RNC, doing their best to make it look like Trump is the guy who will get the donation if I donate.

I inspect these things meticulously, and if I see RNC on it, I ignore the thing with prejudice.

“:^)


10 posted on 02/09/2018 3:48:29 PM PST by DoughtyOne (01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Whether it’s a mistake to be optimistic doesn’t matter. Trump still needs to be in permanent campaign mode, giving great policy speeches and raising money as he does. That’s the way the Democrats do it.


11 posted on 02/09/2018 4:02:06 PM PST by Socon-Econ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Trump has peaked...he won’t be the Republican nominee.....


12 posted on 02/09/2018 4:39:06 PM PST by rrrod (just an old guy with a gun in his pocket)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: familyop

Not much leadership in the GOP. They like being the minority.


13 posted on 02/09/2018 4:40:23 PM PST by virgil (The evil that men do lives after them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: BobL

“which is why we have this losing streak).”

What losing streak?


14 posted on 02/09/2018 5:50:34 PM PST by sergeantdave (Teach a man to fish and he'll steal your gear and sell it)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

My district rep Frank LoBiondo - a rino in a demorat district - is not running so I am 99% positive his seat will go to a democrap.


15 posted on 02/09/2018 6:28:35 PM PST by New Jersey Realist ( (Be Nice To Your Kids. They Will Pick Out Your Nursing Home))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Adding the solid Red plus the lean/likely Red we get 217. All we need is 1 seat from the toss up 21 to retain the majority. If the toss ups in this scenario break 50/50, the Republicans will have about a 10 seat majority.

I think as the dem scandals continue to unfold and the economy continues to improve that equation could move to a Red wave.


16 posted on 02/09/2018 6:32:33 PM PST by Revolutionary ("Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

The RNC is currently controlled by Trump appointees and has record fundraising...GOTV vote operation should be intact for the ground game.

But regardless of the ground game, Trump and Pence should be calling in to the talk radio circuit early and often throughout the election season - both national shows and local shows - to urge people to get out the vote and remind them not to be complacent as the party in power base voters tend to be in off year elections. The Courts are still at stake - if Dems take the Senate, any confirmations grind to a halt, and Schumer probably would not even bring SCOTUS nominees to the floor for a vote.

Manchin in WV should not be permitted to get by with his dog and pony show of claiming to be “independent” of Schumer and company when he is anything but except the year of the election. WV should be a seat we can win. McCaskill (MO) and Donnelly (IN) also should be gone and in fact would not be there now but for terrible verbal gaffes by their opponents last time around. Those races are the first tier of pickups for the Senate. Next is Heitkamp (North Dakota), Tester (Montana) - they also will be up to their old tricks of claiming to be “moderate” or “independent voices.” Longer shots, but still possible, are Nelson (FL), Casey (PA), Brown (OH), Baldwin (WI) and Stabenow (MI) - MI definitely if the likely candidate John James can raise money - young, well spoken candidate that would be a fresh face and provide a strong contrast. Brown would have been in the first tier but with Josh Mandel having to drop out (who was leading him in polls) it is unclear if another candidate that strong would emerge against him. If the breeze is blowing our way and our voters show up, and we are able to hold both NV and AZ, it is not impossible to get to 60 seats...probably not likely, but not impossible if our voters get off their behinds and show up...there are enough of us to win and win big as long as we get to the polls.

Minnesota I would have also put into the mix (which Trump barely lost) but no top tier candidates have bothered to file so far for either of the two seats up for grabs there. I wish it were possible to organize a massive “money bomb” campaign for each of the candidates and we could make third tier races the top tier...sort of like what was done for Christine O’Donnell some years back where raised $10 million in just a week (although she personally squandered that by running really poorly done ads...”I’m not a witch”...but hopefully these other candidates would hire better production companies).


17 posted on 02/09/2018 6:32:48 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: sergeantdave

Virginia, Alabama, and some small races that should have been easy Republican victories. The problem with the small races is that Republicans don’t even know there’s an election - while Democrats use their social media networks to make sure their people are alerted. Knowing the Republican Party, they’re probably still taking out classified ads in the newspaper to alert their voters.


18 posted on 02/09/2018 6:44:50 PM PST by BobL (I shop at Walmart...I just don't tell anyone)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Republican Wildcat

You’re not the only one to say Trump is in charge of the RNC.

Sorry, not buying it. The RNC is a GOPe entity. It hasn’t lifted a finger for Conservatives during my lifetime.

It sure wasn’t in Trump’s corner in 2016. Republicans across the board were popping off against Trump.

Trump actually praises Priebus, but during Priebus’ tenure at the RNC, I was never convinced he was one of us. I’m no convinced he was all-in for Trump either.

You may be right, but you sure couldn’t prove it by me.

I agree that Trump and Priebus should put in an effort to help Conservatives. I sure wouldn’t urge them not to. I just know that they have a busy schedule.

I’d like to think we’d get more good legislation passed this year, but I think that’s a pipe dream.

You know these races better than I do. I had hoped we’d see a massive primary effort to oust all the RINOs, but then the treatment leveled again Moore made it clear how hard the Republican party would fight against that, so what would be the use?

I loath much of the Republican party and the RNC.

They can try to pass off the idea those funds would go to help our cause (appeals by the RNC), but I don’t believe that at all.

The RNC hasn’t done anything at all in California since Reagan’s day. Even Pete Wilson was a luke warm bucket of horse sweat.


19 posted on 02/09/2018 7:05:21 PM PST by DoughtyOne (01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson