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Keyword: polls

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  • The worthlessness of the RCP Polling Averages

    11/10/2018 12:10:09 PM PST · by TexasGurl24 · 25 replies
    RealClearPolitics ^ | 11/10/18 | RealClearPolitics
    I just want to give everyone a sense of how bad the RCP Senate polls were this election. Here are the final RCP averages vs the final results in each of the high profile Senate races. TN - Final RCP Average Blackburn +5.2 Actual Blackburn +10.8 (5.6 Point bias in favor of Democrats.) OH - Final RCP Average +13.25 Brown Actual Brown +6.4 (6.85 point bias in favor of Democrats.) MI - Final RCP Average +8.3 Stabenow Actual +6.6 Stabenow (1.7 Point bias for Democrats.) WV - Final RCP Average +5 Manchin Actual +3.2 Manchin (1.8 point bias in favor...
  • Reasons to bet the polls are still flawed

    11/06/2018 9:50:34 AM PST · by TBP · 46 replies
    The New York Post ^ | November 6, 2018 | Leonid Bershidsky
    A big political gambler I met in Las Vegas in 2016 is in London betting that the Republican Party will keep control of the US Congress. Robert Barnes is essentially wagering that US pollsters haven’t fixed any of the problems that led them astray during the 2016 presidential campaign. Barnes, a trial lawyer, lives in Las Vegas, but he has to travel to the British Isles to wager on US politics since it’s not allowed in the US. The bookies know him as a high roller; the political betting team at Ladbrokes even tweeted his photo to mark his arrival...
  • WHATEVER HAPPENS . . .

    11/06/2018 4:50:16 AM PST · by LS · 132 replies
    self | 11/6/2018 | LS
    Whatever happens, please do NOT be goaded into hysteria by Drudge or ANY sources (including me) saying "this is happening" or "that is happening," or above all . . . "EXIT POLLS SHOW . . . " Let me remind some of you newer Freepers about election day 2004. Everything came down to OH. If George W. Bush won OH, he won the election. If Lurch (John Kerry) won it, he would win. I was working for the Bush campaign in Dayton, OH as a "Poll flusher." Perhaps now technology has mitigated this, but at that time, teams would fan...
  • Voting Problems in New Jersey

    11/06/2018 6:12:41 AM PST · by Mr Ramsbotham · 44 replies
    Self ^ | 11/06/2016 | Mr Ramsbotham
    Any New Jersey Freepers headed out to vote today: be forewarned.
  • Vanity - Well, we know Media/Pundits/Pollsters can't predict.....how about Rally predictions?

    11/05/2018 1:57:21 PM PST · by JLAGRAYFOX · 17 replies
    Well, the American voters know that the spoken words of prediction from the American media, pollsters and pundits ain't really worth a plug nickel, these days, at best. Shucks, maybe we should begin judging the outcome of elections by sizing up and rating the political rallies that abound across the entire country. Common sense would reveal that if we measured the attendance & performance at Republican Political Rallies against the Democrat Political Rallies, we could come up with what the future will hold or deliver to we, the American people. Nah...we can't do that, The Trump political rallies are massive...
  • We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.

    11/05/2018 9:57:14 AM PST · by SpeedyInTexas · 23 replies
    NY Times ^ | SEPT. 20, 2016 | NATE COHN
    You’ve heard of the “margin of error” in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points. But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys. Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come...
  • Politico: Generic Ballot Down To A D+3 On Election Eve

    11/05/2018 8:56:49 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 19 replies
    Hotair ^ | 11/05/2018 | Ed Morrissey
    What happens if you threw a wave party, and only a low tide showed up? The last midterm poll from Politico/Morning Consult shows Republicans have cut the Democratic lead in the national generic ballot by more than half. A week ago, that poll series showed a D+8 lead, but in the final iteration it’s down to just three points: According to the poll, 43 percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district — only slightly more than the 40 percent who would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of registered voters are...
  • GOP's narrow path to deny Pelosi gavel could run through key districts offering shot to flip seats

    11/04/2018 6:52:09 PM PST · by familyop · 38 replies
    Fox News ^ | November 4, 2018 | Paul Steinhauser
    “They’ve been nervous since day one. Since I declared my candidacy in April 2017, they’ve been nervous. And it shows right now. Nancy Pelosi has spent well over half-a-million dollars in the last week to try and distort my campaign,” the Republican nominee in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District said Saturday...It’s one of the precious few Democrat-held seats Republicans have a chance at flipping, from blue to red. Those open races include battles for Minnesota's 8th District seat, held by a retiring Democratic incumbent; Minnesota's 1st, where incumbent Democrat Tim Walz is running for governor; and Nevada's 3rd, where incumbent...
  • CNN op-ed suggests ‘sex strike’ before midterms to help Democrats

    11/03/2018 7:34:47 PM PDT · by Beave Meister · 112 replies
    Conservative Firing Line ^ | 11/3/2018 | Joe Newby
    This is CNN… On Friday, the outlet once dubbed the “least-trusted” name in network news for its rabid anti-Trump and anti-Republican bias, published an op-ed suggesting that women engage in a “sex strike” before the midterm election, no doubt to help Democrats. “It’s time for a revolution,” wrote Wednesday Martin. “At the polls, and in the bedroom. And in our understanding of who women are, sexually and otherwise. Given the tight interweaving of economic and political power with sexual entitlement, female sexual autonomy has never been more urgent, and women’s sexual pleasure has never been more political. Let’s consider what...
  • <FLASHBACK> The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats

    11/03/2018 5:16:09 PM PDT · by Az Joe · 17 replies
    %#* ^ | 11/05/2014 | Nate Silver
    11/5/14 "For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012. The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them."
  • Why Do The Polls Keep Getting It Wrong? Many Republicans Have Stopped Taking Surveys.

    11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT · by 11th_VA · 97 replies
    HuffPost ^ | Updated Apr 28, 2017 | Dr. Benjamin Knoll, Ph.D. , Contributor
    ... I run an exit polling survey project in Boyle County, Kentucky as part of a regular community-based learning component of our political science courses at Centre College. Our students have surveyed over 1,000 randomly-selected voters on their way out of the voting booths in every fall election since 2011. To examine these competing theories, I compared the results of the exit polls with the actual results in Boyle County in each of these recent elections. Central Kentucky is an especially appropriate place to test for such an effect given that the economic and demographic characteristics are favorable to a...
  • Mary Matalin : GOP Will Hold House, Add Senate Seats

    10/31/2018 11:03:24 PM PDT · by SmokingJoe · 78 replies
    Newsmax TV ^ | 10/25/2018 | Mary Matalin
    Full title : Mary Matalin to Newsmax TV: GOP Will Hold House, Add Senate Seats Republican political consultant Mary Matalin told Newsmax TV on Thursday that she believes the GOP will not only win seats in the Senate, but also hold on to the House majority. In remarks on “Newsmax Now,” Matalin — who’s served under President Ronald Reagan, was campaign director for George H. W. Bush, and was an assistant to President George W. Bush — said Democrats “forget even recent history” We’re going to win in all the same places” Republicans were victorious in 2016, she asserted. “I've...
  • VANITY - 2 more seats trending right

    10/31/2018 10:12:16 PM PDT · by Teacher317 · 16 replies
    me | 10-31-2018 | T317
    I use RCP as my polling resource. It's a bit left-leaning, but it tends to have more polls that most other sites, and makes trends a bit easier to see. Anyway, last week, they had the House as 205-198 with 32 "tossups". As of today, it is 203-198, with 34 tossups. Clearly, the MSM isn't going to share this change, so it is up to us to notice and spread the word... thus, this vanity. Among the 34 tossups, 30 are current GOP seats. The two that just shifted rightward are MN7 and NV4, both current Dem seats. Curiously, the...
  • AZ Senate-POLL: McSally has lead over Sinema as election nears.

    10/31/2018 8:33:06 PM PDT · by Az Joe · 25 replies
    ABC 15 Phoenix ^ | 0/31/2018 | Justin Pazera
    The exclusive ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights poll shows McSally with a seven-point lead with 52% of the vote compared to Sinema's 45%. On the flip-side, a CNN poll also released Wednesday had Sinema with 51% of the vote compared to McSally's 47%.
  • McCaskill swipes at Warren, Sanders when asked about 'crazy Democrats'

    10/30/2018 3:00:53 AM PDT · by Libloather · 27 replies
    Fox News ^ | 10/29/18 | Gregg Re
    Speaking exclusively to Fox News on Monday, vulnerable incumbent Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill dropped the names of two high-profile colleagues, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, when asked to identify the "crazy Democrats" from whom her campaign has distanced itself in recent days. McCaskill said she wouldn't call the two "crazy," but noted they had disagreements with each other. **SNIP** When Baier asked if McCaskill had any "crazy" colleagues in the Senate, McCaskill referenced Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, considered a potential 2020 presidential contender. "Well, I would say this," McCaskill replied. "I would not call my colleagues crazy, but Elizabeth...
  • 835 Elections (Alternate Nate Silver Site) LMAO

    10/28/2018 3:13:33 PM PDT · by grayboots · 5 replies
    835 Elections ^ | 10/28/2018 | 835 Elections
    Tired of statistics, polls & pundits? Unsure which models & analyses to trust? Looking for definitive results? Well so are we! 835 uses cutting-edge, digital coin-flip technology to definitively tell you the outcome of every single race. We 100% guarantee our results will have a minimum of 50% accuracy for each individual race!
  • Trump Weighing EO To Ban Central American Migrants From Claiming Asylum

    10/25/2018 8:25:34 PM PDT · by Helicondelta · 116 replies
    thehill.com ^ | 10/25/18
    President Trump is reportedly considering implementing a plan to block Central American migrants fleeing for the U.S. from claiming asylum when they reach American soil. The move reported by the Washington Post Thursday night is the latest potential escalation in the president's preoccupation with a caravan of such migrants slowly trekking toward the the southern border. The report said Trump is looking at using authority like he did when he implemented a travel ban on certain majority Muslim countries to bar Central Americans from entering the country as a matter of national security. The Post reviewed a draft of the...
  • Pollster John McLaughlin Has New Poll With Dems Up Onlt 2% and Trump ar 48%!

    10/23/2018 6:57:36 PM PDT · by CWW · 49 replies
    Fox News Hannity ^ | 10-23-2018 | Cww
    Reliable GOP pollster John McLaughlin just announced that he is releasing new polling data that has the Dems only up by 2 pats over the GOP using a national sample of 1000 voters, and he has Trump up to 48% approval, the same as Rasmussen and the NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll.
  • Jorge Ramos Defends Migrant Caravan on Fox News: ‘There’s No Invasion Here’

    10/23/2018 6:32:09 PM PDT · by familyop · 59 replies
    Breitbart News ^ | October 23, 2018 | John Binder
    Fox News on Monday hyped an interview with open borders advocate and Univision anchor Jorge Ramos,...Last year, Ramos declared that the U.S. belonged to Hispanic immigrants, not American citizens. “...Let me repeat this: Our country, not theirs. It is our country. And we are not going to leave,” Ramos said at the time. “We are nearly 60 million Latinos in the United States. And thanks to us, the United States eats, grows and, as we’ve seen today, sings and dances.”
  • Ten Rating Changes as Democrats' Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens

    10/23/2018 4:33:20 PM PDT · by familyop · 48 replies
    The Cook Political Report ^ | October 23, 2018 | David Wasserman
    Two weeks out, district-level polls reflect a House battleground gradually polarizing along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. Democrats are maintaining leads over GOP opponents in upscale, Clinton-won "Whole Foods suburbs" of Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Northern Virginia. But Republicans' numbers continue to improve in Trump-won districts in places like rural Minnesota, Upstate New York and Downstate Illinois. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats enjoy a four-point lead in midterm election interest, narrower than their ten points average lead for the first nine months of the year. It's likely that cultural flash points like the...